SE1 Capital Markets

Evolving to Consistency

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GBP/USD, August 13

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GBP/USD, August 13, 7pm UK Time – Longer term analysis

 The chart below is an analysis based on the daily cable chart. After GBP/USD failed to break 1.6, we saw, for whatever unlogical reason, strength coming into the USD and a 400 pip pullback to 1.56, each day following a similar scheme. We opened London with a double top, only to give away 100 pips during the session. Same happened during the US sessions, but now we have found stronger support levels. A confluence of recent highs (red line), the up trend-line (yellow) and a 50% Fib line will make it hard for cable to clearly break the 1.54-1.55 level. If the next daily candles don’t support a further down-trend, we will form a bullish divergence on the Oscillating indicator (light blue trend line in the indicator section) and could see daily stochs turn around to the bull side as well.

What I want to say is: Look for Cable longs in the 1.55 (aggressive), 1.54 (conservative area) if the indicators turn around.

The second chart is an analysis of H1 GBPUSD, which already shows a confirmed bullish divergence on the Oscillating indicator and bullish Stochastics in the H1 time frame. Let’s see if the daily is game and finally attack 1.6-1.62. Merwins words and reality are, as usual, long forgotten…

 
 
 

GBP/USD, August 13 7pm UK Time, Daily

GBP/USD, August 13 7pm UK Time, Daily

GBP/USD, August 13, 7pm UK Time

GBP/USD, August 13, 7pm UK Time

AUD/JPY, July 20

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AUD/JPY, July 20

Asia was active, as called by @tradercisco, and we finally we broke out of yesterday’s range to the upside and quickly moved to the next Fibo level, which also marks the upper end of a long term channel (marked in red). Like yesterday, this zone is very congested (Daily R2 at 76.4483, 38% Fib at 76.50, end of the range at 76.54 at 100% of the Fib at 76.77. Don’t buy in this zone before it clearly breaks.

AUD/JPY, July 20, 9pm UK Time

What a day. AUD/JPY made its usual move back and finally up to the next level, blasting quickly through the 77 level. I am seriously considering trading higher time frames and wider stops with volatile pairs like AUD/JPY. I got caught up a few times in the random oscillations and didn’t make the obvious pips. Note to myself: Only trade Yen pairs at extreme levels.

AUD/JPY, July 20, 9pm UK Time

AUD/JPY, July 20, 9pm UK Time

AUD/JPY, July 19

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AUD/JPY, July 19, 8am UK Time, H1

The pair is trading in a 600 pip wide range from 73 up to 79, currently almost in the middle just above 75. Two decision zones, based on daily and H1 Fibos will determine direction for today. Trade what you see.

AUD/JPY, July 19, 8am UK Time

AUD/JPY, July 19, 8am UK Time

 AUD/JPY, July 19, 10pm UK time

RANGE TRADING. The critical zones held all day and AUD/JPY has still not decided where to go.

AUD/JPY, July 19, 10pm

AUD/JPY, July 19, 10pm

NZD/USD, July 15

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NZD/USD, July 15, M30, 8am UK Time

Good morning everybody. Similar to my logic yesterday, I have picked a pair with a very strong currency -NZD- and a very weak currency -USD-. The pair has been in an up trend for 7 days in a row and is pretty likely to go down today, like AUD/JPY yesterday and for the rest of the week (please check out the AUD/JPY post for more info).

I drew a Fib based on the last push up (M30). 0.7242 was confirmed as the ceiling three times in a row and the pair has started to go down first to the 23 %Fib level and then close to the Daily S1 level at 0.7180. This has dropped already about 50 pips during Asia and another 50 pips during the early Europe session, hence, I expect some re-tracement before another move down. The critical decision zones are marked blue and I am looking for breakouts to the trendlines. Every pip NZD/USD goes up is great because it will enable me to go in short at a more attractive level. Note to myself: We are looking for highly profitable shorts, don’t get in with a long at statistical highs.

NZD/USD, July 15, 8am

NZD/USD, July 15

NZD/USD, July 15, 8pm UK Time

After 7 days in an up-trend, NZD/USD decided to go up for another day! After forming a double top, it fell, as anticipated, to the 0.718 level, found support at the trend line and shot up, step by step, blasting through all levels, close to 0.73. Watch this level for direction, but it is statistically likely that this will turn around soon.

NZD/USD, July 15, 8pm UK Time

NZD/USD, July 15, 8pm UK Time

GBP/USD, July 13

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GBP/USD, July 13, 8am BST

Asia consolidatied at the 100% Fib from yesterday’s move during London. Europe started mirroring yesterday’s nose dive. Right now we see 1.4979 with ongoing USD strength and GBP weakness. Yesterday’s low was 1.4950 so watch this level. If we continue on yesterday’s path we will consolidate a bit and re-bound through the rest of the Europe and into the NY session. Let’s see. I will keep this updated.

GBP/USD, July 13, 9am BST

GBP/USD, July 13, 9am BST

 GBP/USD, H1, July 13, 9pm

Ups, Cable did it again. Almost the same pattern as yesterday, we just haven’t seen the retracement at the end back to the 100 Fib level but maybe Asia is good for that. I updated yesterday’s Fibo line and adjusted it to the full up move from 1.4950 to 1.5086. We went into a down move at the beginning of the day, again, which slightly overshot and touched the 23% Fib level. What followed was an impressive up move -suprise, surprise- through the 28, 50 and 61 Fib levels, right up to the 100% Fib level. After just one breath it shot up again and hit its target, as yesterday, at the 161 Fib level. Honestly, I saw the 1.5173 when the up move started but felt such a strong move would be too far away. Boy was I wrong and Fibonacci right. Right now cable finds support at Daily R2. If it completely wants to imitate yesterday’s move it would need to go back to the 1.5085 level, but in contrast to yesterday it climed above a round number and two critical levels (R2 and R1) making the full retracement less likely. We are now stuck between the 161.8 Fib level at 1.51735 abd Daily R2 at 1.5160. Any clear break and re-test above or below will show us the way for Asia.

Trading wise was a bit up and down. An initial long I entered correctly at the break of the down channel earlier today nicely moved up, but a rating agency announcement created so much volatility that my stop got hit. Luckily I already had the chance to move it to a 10pip profit target. My mistake was to short Cable at the previous day high and I ended up giving 20 pips to the market in a matter of seconds. The retracement happened a bit later and I was able to short Cable for +21 pips. Phew. The final trade of the day ended shortly after I entered a long when we were about to cross daily R1. I left the room for a minute and when I came back the price shot up by about 40 pips! This final trade gave me 34 pips + the 10 from the first trade and the +1 from the two trades in the middle landed me a nice 45 pips for the day and a smile on the face looking at the daily broker statement. Let me know if you have any questions or if you want to discuss:

GBP/USD July 13, 9pm UK Time

GBP/USD July 13, 9pm UK Time

GBP/USD

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GBP/USD, July 12 

Downward channel is still intact. GBP showed continued weakness during the Asia session, with COT data for cable at -86. USD shows some signs of recovery during Asia. This is a pair that could trend today. 1,4996 is a valid S1 level, and just got broken and re-tested. I am looking for opportunities to get in short below 1.5050-1.5030. 

GBP/USD, July 12

GBP/USD, July 12

Update, 11am BST, Cable, M5 

Still some room left for the up move. Looking for shorts at the upper range of the channel. 

Update, 11am BST, Cable, M5

Update, 11am BST, Cable, M5

GBPUSD, M5, 1pm BST 

Cable decided to move up sharply, despite weak current account and GBP data. If it finds support at the 200SMA (brown line), we will see more bullish short term movement. 

 

 GBPUSD, M5, 9pm BST

Now I see what I should have seen earlier. The Fib from the initial down move (1.5028 – 1.4950) at the European open was valid all day. The double bottom at 1.4950 marked the low of the day (nicely called by FX13 yesterday at 50Pip’s seminar and Faithmight today!). Next stop was the upper range of the existing down channel (green), clear break up and re-test at 1.4988 (first blue field), spot on the 50% level of the Fib. The US open saw a clear move up to the 100% Fib level, including a break out of the up channel and another re-test of the 100% Fib, to finally form the daily high at the 161% Fib level (1.5088). We ended the day with a quick retracement to the 61% Fib level and sit right now at the 100% Fib level, which, surprise, surprise, is exactly the level where we started the day.

My learning for the day: IGNORE NEWS AND KEEP IT SIMPLE. It was all in the price and the Fib levels. My interpretation of the data made me look for shorts where we ended up going long and vice versa. It’s all there and could have been traded very profitable from Fibo level to Fibo level, once we have found direction. Check out the chart below, and please let me know what you think: