AUD/JPY, July 14, M30, 8am UK Time

Ok, today a different pair. Why? AUD has been going strong for the last 6 days and JPY was weak. Without any Australian news on the horizon to continue the trend and the recent pullback we have seen in JPY, this could either exhaust its up-trend, or go into correction mode.

The first Fib you see is based on the overall up move, marking the top of the range, roughly at Daily R1 at 78.9. The second Fib is based on the up move that started yesterday from 76.80 to the current high of 78.9. Right now we pull back in a downward channel (green). I am looking for breaks and re-tests of the channel and a potential break of the 61.8 Fibo level at about 78.

AUD/JPY July 14, 8am UK Time

AUD/JPY July 14, 8am UK Time

 AUD/JPY, July 14, M30, 3 pm UK Time

AUD/JPY behaved beautifully today. My bias was to look for shorts after a six day period of strength and after an initial breakout to the upside of the channel (green), it dropped like a rock just before forming a complete double top, re-tested the downward channel as resistance and pushed down to the critical 61% Fibo line which it evenually took out to go quickly to the 50% and almost all the way to the 38% Fibo level. The last candle was the re-test of the 50% level. It is pretty likely to catch the 38% level at 77.59.

I traded successfully the breakout of the channel to the 78.70 level and two shorts afterwards. The biggest loser occured through the announcment of the US retail data.

Lesson learned: Again, believe in your analysis, and don’t trade 5 minutes before and after major news releases.

AUD/JPY, July 14, 3pm UK Time

AUD/JPY, July 14, 3pm UK Time