SE1 Capital Markets

Evolving to Consistency

Browsing Posts in Thoughts

Dear blog reader and subscribers!!

We are transitioning all existing resources on this blog to www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com and will stop updating the charts here soon.

Please visit www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com to sign up for free access to charts for next week, trade analytics, money/risk management, best practices on trading psychology and a wealth of powerful tools that are designed to help with your trading.

Subscribing to the resource is free of charge and you’ll continue to receive the weekly newsletter with the charts for next week.

Thank you very much and see you at www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com.

SE1

Dear blog reader and subscribers!

We are transitioning all existing resources on this blog to www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com and will stop updating the charts here soon.

Please visit www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com to sign up for free access to charts for next week, trade analytics, money/risk management, best practices on trading psychology and a wealth of powerful tools that are designed to help with your trading.

Subscribing to the resource is free of charge and you’ll continue to receive the weekly newsletter with the charts for next week.

Thank you very much and see you at www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com.

SE1

Dear blog reader and subscribers!

We are transitioning all existing resources on this blog to www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com and will stop updating the charts here soon.

Please visit www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com to sign up for free access to charts for next week, trade analytics, money/risk management, best practices on trading psychology and a wealth of powerful tools that are designed to help with your trading.

Subscribing to the resource is free of charge and you’ll continue to receive the weekly newsletter with the charts for next week.

Thank you very much and see you at www.tradersleadershipcouncil.com.

SE1

New weekly view, 4 – 11 July 2011:

End of week update, July 7:

New weekly view, 27 June – 3 July 2011: $EURCHF also in how low can it go mode. Not particularily intersted in the pair right now, but willing to look for shorts at retracements in the levels indicated on the chart.

Update weekly view, 30 June 2011 (Month/Quarter/Half-Year End):

End of week update, 1 July 2011:

New weekly view, 20 June – 26 June 2011: USDCAD back AGAIN at 0.98. Looking for direction from here, favoring shorts down to 0.9600

Weekly Update, June 22.

Given the volatility today, another weekly Update, June 23.

End of week update, June 24:

UPDATE: We have completed all free of charge trade performance diagnostics with great success. Each report is about 20 pages long and reviews each traders performance along multiple dimensions to root cause the traders’s true performance and the expectancy of the trade system to identify high impact improvement opportunities. Please do reach out if you are interested in participating and want to find out more, but please note that we have allocated all free of charge offers.

Many retail traders focus on entering the next trade, but don’t evaluate their actual trading performance to identify strengths and weaknesses, despite having only very limited capital and time to succeed in this business.

In fact, 70% of traders fail to make consistent profits and blow their accounts in the first view months. Only e0% keep track of their trading stats, learn from their mistakes and adjust their plan accordingly. Instead, many cut corners and buy ready made trading systems from self acclaimed “trading gurus” and fail again and again.

In response, we are developing a new trading performance analysis service -TradeWatch- that enables each trader to improve his/her personal trading performance.

TradeWatch helps you to focus on what the pros focus on:

  1. Trading Performance Evaluation
    Understand your strengths and weaknesses in trading
  2. Continuous improvement
    Use lessons learned from detailed analysis to recalibrate performance and kill costly bad habits early
  3. Create Accountability
    Report and discuss your performance with an independent full time trader
  4. Eliminate Performance Anxiety
    Review your performance against the plan, not against the market to tackle performance anxiety
  5. Find your way
    Stop listening to others. Put the required work in, stop cutting corners and find a trading style that suits you.

TradeWatch helps you to understand what you do right or wrong, by evaluating your personal trading statistics, highlighting your strengths and weaknesses, and helping you to create and execute a road-map to consistency in trading.

Participating traders will need only to provide their trading statistics of at least the last 50 trades in a standardized Excel format (available upon request at TradeWatch@se1cm.com ).

In return, you will receive a detailed report -free of charge- with your trading performance, including:

  • Monthly/Daily Performance overview and drill down
  • Average PIP Performance overall and along multiple dimensions
  • Win-/Loss Ratios overall and across multiple dimensions
  • Performance of trade vehicles across multiple dimensions
  • Identify strengths and improvement areas of your system
  • Help you create a road-map to consistency (results delivered and communicated in a 1:1 session)

We already have had great success sharing customized results with traders. At this point we are looking for three more active traders (demo or live) as beta testers for the TradeWatch service who will receive their customized reports and feedback completely free of charge and without any obligation. The free customized reports will be given away on a first come, first served basis. If you are interested, please contact us at TradeWatch@se1cm.com and we send over the Excel template for your entering your trading statistics. (Time requirement to copy and paste the data is typically not more than 20 minutes).

Thank you very much and please don’t hesitate to contact us at TradeWatch@se1cm.com if you have any questions.

Happy New Year!

3 comments

Happy New Year to all traders out there. I wish you a healthy and prosperous 2011 :-)

Happy New Year!

Germany loves the Euro

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By the end of World War II much of Europe was devastated. A large portion of the 60 million deaths among World War II casualties were residents of Europe. Sustained aerial bombardment had badly damaged most major cities, and industrial facilities especially hard-hit. Many of the continent’s greatest cities, including Warsaw, London and Berlin, laid in ruins. The region’s economic structure was ruined, and millions were homeless.

In 1947, Democratic U.S. President Harry Truman initiated the Marshall Plan (aka the European Recovery Program – ERP) to address each of the obstacles to post-war recovery. The plan looked to the future, and did not focus on the destruction caused by the war. Much more important were efforts to modernize European industrial and business practices using high-efficiency American models, reduce artificial trade barriers, and instill a sense of hope and self-reliance.

Former U.S. President Hoover noted that, “The whole economy of Europe is interlinked with German economy through the exchange of raw materials and manufactured goods. The productivity of Europe cannot be restored without the restoration of Germany as a contributor to that productivity.” In Washington, the Joint Chiefs declared that the “complete revival of Germany industry, particularly coal mining” was now of “primary importance” to American security.

The United States was already spending a great deal to help Europe recover. Over $14 billion was spent or loaned during the postwar period through the end of 1947. Much of this aid was designed to restore infrastructure and help refugees. Britain, for example, received an emergency loan of $3.75 billion.

Even while the Marshall Plan was being implemented, the dismantling of German industry continued, largely supported by the Brits and the French, taking Germany back to a standard of life known at the height of the Great Depression in 1932. In 1951 West Germany agreed to join the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) the following year. This meant that some of the economic restrictions on production capacity and on actual production that were imposed by the International Authority for the Ruhr were lifted, and that its role was taken over by the ECSC. The ECSC created the foundation for the modern-day developments of the European Union.

Since the Treaty of Rome in 1958 the European Union is committed to regional integration and has grown in size through the accession of new member states. The addition of policy areas to its remit and the implementation of new institutions has increased the political sovereignty. The Treaty of Maastricht in 1993 established the European Union with its current name. A monetary union, the eurozone, has been established since the inception in 1999 and is made of sixteen member states.

Germans know that basis for the post-war “Wirtschaftswunder (Economic Miracle)” was only possible after the liberation from Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Regime by the Allied forces, the subsequent gradual reduction of industrial production and trade barriers and finally allowing Germany to become a full sovereign member of the European Union. The actual Wirschaftswunder was driven by guest workers from Italy, Turkey and Greece (!).

Admittedly the tone of the German Government towards the Euro has changed recently and became more direct. That’s because Angela Merkel is the first German Chancellor who was born in 1954, well after the second World War ended. However, she learned under the leadership of Helmut Kohl (16 years Germany’s chancellor) who was, along with Francois Mitterand one of the main architects of the Maastricht Treaty which created the European Union.

With the European DNA deeply embedded into Germany’s culture as a substitute for national pride, a failure of Europe and/or the Euro would be seen as a failure of Germany.  Again.

Germany will go very, very far, politically and on a monetary basis, to protect the European Union and the Euro, no doubt.   The Euro faces a storm right now, but it’s by no means the end of the currency.

*post fueled by Wikipedia*

Volatility analysis of EUR/USD and Cable, based on daily high/low price data from 2001 – 2010.
The charts below analyse daily volatility of EUR/USD and Cable from 2001-2010. The charts at the end of the post look at the frequency of daily moves.
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  • Volatility first increased in Cable, then in EURUSD
  • Volatility still high in EUR/USD, but flattened in Cable

  • Most daily moves stay within a 100-160 Pip Range (Cable and Euro)
  • EUR/USD stays in a 20 pip range for significant number of days
  • Daily moves with more than 200 pips are rare, with progressively decreasing probability for larger moves
  • The largest daily moves observed in EURUSD are +500, in Cable +1.000 pips

Click here for a EUR/USD_CABLE_VOLATILITY (PDF version)