SE1 Capital Markets

GBP/USD, July 13, 8am BST

Asia consolidatied at the 100% Fib from yesterday’s move during London. Europe started mirroring yesterday’s nose dive. Right now we see 1.4979 with ongoing USD strength and GBP weakness. Yesterday’s low was 1.4950 so watch this level. If we continue on yesterday’s path we will consolidate a bit and re-bound through the rest of the Europe and into the NY session. Let’s see. I will keep this updated.

GBP/USD, July 13, 9am BST

 GBP/USD, H1, July 13, 9pm

Ups, Cable did it again. Almost the same pattern as yesterday, we just haven’t seen the retracement at the end back to the 100 Fib level but maybe Asia is good for that. I updated yesterday’s Fibo line and adjusted it to the full up move from 1.4950 to 1.5086. We went into a down move at the beginning of the day, again, which slightly overshot and touched the 23% Fib level. What followed was an impressive up move -suprise, surprise- through the 28, 50 and 61 Fib levels, right up to the 100% Fib level. After just one breath it shot up again and hit its target, as yesterday, at the 161 Fib level. Honestly, I saw the 1.5173 when the up move started but felt such a strong move would be too far away. Boy was I wrong and Fibonacci right. Right now cable finds support at Daily R2. If it completely wants to imitate yesterday’s move it would need to go back to the 1.5085 level, but in contrast to yesterday it climed above a round number and two critical levels (R2 and R1) making the full retracement less likely. We are now stuck between the 161.8 Fib level at 1.51735 abd Daily R2 at 1.5160. Any clear break and re-test above or below will show us the way for Asia.

Trading wise was a bit up and down. An initial long I entered correctly at the break of the down channel earlier today nicely moved up, but a rating agency announcement created so much volatility that my stop got hit. Luckily I already had the chance to move it to a 10pip profit target. My mistake was to short Cable at the previous day high and I ended up giving 20 pips to the market in a matter of seconds. The retracement happened a bit later and I was able to short Cable for +21 pips. Phew. The final trade of the day ended shortly after I entered a long when we were about to cross daily R1. I left the room for a minute and when I came back the price shot up by about 40 pips! This final trade gave me 34 pips + the 10 from the first trade and the +1 from the two trades in the middle landed me a nice 45 pips for the day and a smile on the face looking at the daily broker statement. Let me know if you have any questions or if you want to discuss:

GBP/USD July 13, 9pm UK Time

GBP/USD, July 12 

Downward channel is still intact. GBP showed continued weakness during the Asia session, with COT data for cable at -86. USD shows some signs of recovery during Asia. This is a pair that could trend today. 1,4996 is a valid S1 level, and just got broken and re-tested. I am looking for opportunities to get in short below 1.5050-1.5030. 

GBP/USD, July 12

Update, 11am BST, Cable, M5 

Still some room left for the up move. Looking for shorts at the upper range of the channel. 

Update, 11am BST, Cable, M5

GBPUSD, M5, 1pm BST 

Cable decided to move up sharply, despite weak current account and GBP data. If it finds support at the 200SMA (brown line), we will see more bullish short term movement. 

 GBPUSD, M5, 9pm BST

My learning for the day: IGNORE NEWS AND KEEP IT SIMPLE. It was all in the price and the Fib levels. My interpretation of the data made me look for shorts where we ended up going long and vice versa. It’s all there and could have been traded very profitable from Fibo level to Fibo level, once we have found direction. Check out the chart below, and please let me know what you think: